How can UK upgrade the roster?
The Kentucky men's basketball program has the postseason ahead of them, but that probably feels more like a threat than opportunity at this point. The team that seemed deep and dynamic in an exhibition rout of Purdue (remember that?) and numerous thrashings of low-major outfits turned out to have a Misfit Toys vibe when taking on high-major programs. The Wildcats turned out to have two truly dependable players in Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen, a solid role player in Colin Chandler, and a collection of mystery boxes. Much of the roster didn't mesh well with the top talent, who needed driving lanes but were forced to share the floor with at leats two non-shooters at all times. The interior players struggled to rebound or finish consistently, the perimeter players (besides Chandler) didn't shoot well enough or often enough, and everyone turned the ball over too much.
The biggest issue is that Oweh and Aberdeen are leaving the old-fashioned way (running out of eligibility). In SEC play, Kentucky continually fell apart when either player was out of the game. The two seniors were the only two players on the roster who has a usage rate above 20% and played over 400 minutes this season. To translate that stat, a usage rate above 20% means that a player is "using" more than their fair share of possessions (20% = 1 in 5). "Using" possessions means taking shots, drawing free throws, or committing turnovers. Kentucky needs players who can take that burden and make positive contributions, but none of the returnees have shown that.
The second big issue is that the returning players do not mesh together well, especially on offense. Kentucky has no players at the PF or C position who can shoot from the outside, like at all. Moreno, Garrison, Dioubate, and Jelavic combined to go 25-104 (24%), with none of them hitting even 31%. Kentucky has no returning guards who can both create off the dribble and shoot reasonably well from the outside. Collin Chandler can shoot and doesn't commit turnovers, but he doesn't create his own shot inside the arc or create assists. Jaland Lowe can create assists and his own shot, but he can't shoot from the outside at all. Jasper Johnson can shoot a bit, but is turnover prone and isn't a major threat off the dribble. Kam Williams and Trent Noah are almost entirely catch-and-shoot players.
A lesser, but still present, issue is that Kentucky's projected returning guards are not exactly stout on defense. Both Lowe and Johnson are skinny guards who struggle to stop ballhandlers. Collin Chandler's athleticism creates steals, but he is prone to be out of position and give up drives.
But, other than that, it's a solid foundation. <note: sarcasm> Kentucky needs to find: (A) 2 players who can be lead creators/scorers, (B) a big who can stretch the floor while still providing some rebounding, and (C) 2 perimeter players who bring some creation and shooting, and preferably some capable defense/size. There can be some overlap here, as the lead creators/scorers could fit either of category B or C.
Let's get a little head start on Kentucky's offseason by trying to identify some players who could be good fits for the Wildcats in the transfer portal this offseason.
Ground Rules For Next Year's Roster
I don't know that I'd consider anyone from the current roster a "must-keep", but the two strongest candidates are Collin Chandler and Malachi Moreno. Let's assume that either 1) these players return to Kentucky, OR 2) Kentucky replaces them with someone with similar skills/talent. Also, we should assume Jayden Quaintance declares for the NBA Draft OR transfers somewhere else...put simply, he won't be part of the rotation.
I'd consider every other potential returnee to be effectively a role player, with the possible exception of Jaland Lowe (who can be dynamic at PG). I don't view any other returnee as a likely candidate to fill the Oweh/Aberdeen roles as offensive creators, or to develop as shooters or defenders meaningfully.
So, where can Kentucky find the missing pieces?
The Candidates
DISCLAIMER: I have no idea if any of these players are actually going to transfer. I also am purposely not listing players who seem like strong candidates to turn pro. Obviously, if Labaron Philon, Meleek Thomas, Christian Andersen, or other NBA Draft candidates enter the portal they would be major priorities. However, I'm trying to find players who I consider likely to be in college next year. I also am prioritizing players who I believe would be successful in a bigger role and with a top program like Kentucky, and for whom playing at Kentucky would be a meaningful move.
I've ranked them in rough priority, although the importance of each player is a bit dependent on who else UK gets. The top 3 are players who I view as All-SEC level, while the remainder are players who would be solid starters who raise the ceiling.
Tier 1: Potential Alphas
1) Allen Graves, 6'9" F, Santa Clara (Freshman) Player profiles at BK Reference and Bart Torvik
Graves may end up sneaking into the NBA Draft discussion despite playing just over 20mpg for a (very good) mid major. Graves averages 11.7ppg and 6.4rpg, but his advanced stats profile really pops. Graves hit 41% of his threes on just under 3 attempts per game, collected 20% of opponent misses (higher than any UK players), and put up 2.8 stocks (steals + blocks) per game. He put up 15ppg and 6.5rpg in 26mpg against Gonzaga and Saint Mary's (4 games), hitting 54% on twos and 35% on threes. In fact, he's playing against Gonzaga as I write this. Graves was a star right away in the West Coast Conference, and held up just fine against the best teams Santa Clara played. If he enters the portal, I'd expect Graves to be one of the 2-3 most coveted players this season. This would be a dream get for Kentucky as he fills a role as an alpha scorer, improves UK's spacing, and is solid defensively.
2) Juke Harris, 6'7" F, Wake Forest (Sophomore) BK Reference Bart Torvik
Harris was a standout for the otherwise unremarkable Demon Deacons, making second team All-ACC and winning the conference's Most Improved award. Harris put up almost 22ppg this season on a 54% effective FG%, better than either Aberdeen or Oweh for Kentucky. His three point shooting is just OK, at 34% (although on 234 attempts, 80 more than Collin Chandler). Harris could by a hybrid SF/PF, as he was a more effective rebounder than Mo Dioubate but had some flashes of playmaking while keeping turnovers low. Harris had a massive 28% usage rate for Wake Forest, so he would have no issue taking on a major role for Kentucky. If his playmaking or shooting was a more clear strength, he would have been the #1 option here...but I don't quite see the versatility that Graves has.
3) Joshua Dent, 6'3" PG, Saint Mary's (Sophomore) BK Reference Bart Torvik
The Gaels have historically been a very sold mid-major program, but there aren't many players who transferred out and had success (remember Aidan Mahaney?). Mikey Lewis is a bit more well-known as Saint Mary's top perimeter player, but Dent is more interesting to me as a more efficient scorer and the playmaking engine. Dent is averaging 13.3ppg and 5.6apg in 36mpg, with the Gaels rated 22nd by KenPom.com, so he has no issues being a hub for a very good team. He's at 39% from 3 on 4 attempts per game, with an assist-turnover ratio over 2.3:1. Dent also hits 63% of his shots at the rim and collects a steal on 2.7% of opponent possessions, both in line with what Otega Oweh did this year for UK. The biggest question mark with Dent is likely his ability to take on a bigger load, as he had a usage rate under 19% for Saint Mary's this season. However, his offensive efficiency and ability to score at the rim earn him comps to players like Bennett Stirtz, Adam Flagler, and Tyler Kolek.
Tier 2: Starters who mesh well
4) Isaiah Johnson, 6'1" PG, Colorado (Freshman) BK Reference Bart Torvik
He started less than half of the games this season for the Buffaloes and wasn't a top-100 recruit coming out of LA, but Johnson made a huge impact this season. He averaged 17ppg in 30mpg, with 39% shooting from three on 4.5 attempts per game. He had a strong 2:1 assist-turnover ratio, although he only averaged 3 assists per game. Despite being listed at 6'1, 170lbs, he hit 67% of his shots at the rim this season, indicating that he has innate ability to get to the rim and finish. Johnson also drew a huge volume of free throws (192, 2 more than Oweh did) and his 82%. He also stepped up against top teams, putting up 28 points on 64% eFG% against Arizona; 19 points on 89% eFG% vs Houston; 24 points on 62% eFG% against Iowa State. The two concerns are his small size which may make him a defensive liability and the shoot-first approach. Kentucky would likely need other playmakers around him to make the offense hum, but his scoring and secondary playmaking would bring an offensive versatility that Kentucky doesn't have on their roster.
5) Kyle Jorgensen, 6'9" PF, Colorado State (Sophomore) BK Reference Bart Torvik
Jorgensen put up 12ppg and 4.2rpg this season for the Rams, hitting a cool 44% of threes on 3.5 attempts per game. Jorgensen would be an excellent fit as a stretch 4 who can also score inside, as he hit 65% on twos (taking more twos than threes). Jorgensen also brings some playmaking at the 4, averaging 2.2 assists per game in just 25 minutes. Jorgensen is not without his concerns, however. He collects about 15% of opponent misses, a little below what Dioubate or Jelavic did for UK this season. Jorgensen also was more of a perimeter threat than an inside scorer against better teams he played this season. He profiles about the level of Andrew Carr, with better shooting but less interior scoring. If UK can bring in two strong perimeter transfers, Jorgensen would be a better fit at PF than anyone UK has now.
6) Money Williams, 6'4" PG/SG, Montana (Junior) BK Reference Bart Torvik
Great name! He also has serious game, putting up 19.6ppg and 5apg this season. He may in fact lead Montana to the NCAA Tournament this season. He has good size at 6'4", 200lbs, takes on a massive 35% usage rate but still hits 36% on threes and 55% on twos, and hits 88% from the free throw line. However, there are two major question marks which keep the Money Man from ranking higher here. First, he has limited games against anywhere near the type of competition UK plays. Second, he averaged 4 turnovers per game this season despite that competition level. Adding a transfer who averaged almost 20ppg and maybe led his low-major team to the tournament would grab headlines, but there are real questions about how his game would fit with better teammates and opponents. Williams hasn't been as good of a finisher as other guards on this list (57% at the rim over the last 2 years) despite the lower competition level. I'd consider Williams to be similiar to Antonio Reeves, who was a part-time starter his first year at Kentucky and had some issues translating to the SEC level. However, if UK landed two options from the list above him, Williams would be a nice option to fill an Oweh-lite role.
What about freshmen?
There likely isn't an incoming freshman option who is capable of filling the headline roles as an offensive creator. Maybe Tyran Stokes, although I'm not sure he brings the playmaking and shooting that UK needs...and I don't think UK has a real shot with him anymore. The incoming freshman class is much lighter on instant impact college players than the current freshman class. One intriguing name who UK has been linked to is Dink Pate, a 3 year G-League veteran who is planning to attend college next year. However, Pate's G-League stats give me pause. He's never hit 50% on twos, never had an assist-turnover ratio above 1.5:1, never hit more than 73% on free throws (or taken more than 1.5 FTA per game), and has never averaged even 1 steal or 1 block per game despite being a 6'8" guard. The lone bright spot is 38% 3ptFG% this season on 8 attempts per game, but he was 21% and 26% the 2 years prior. I'd consider Pate a nice add who is a mystery box, but I'm not sure he's clearly a better G-League player than Charles Bediako was.
Kentucky has some serious holes to fill next season, but thanks to the new era in college basketball they will be able to do so with established college production. Let's hope Pope & Co. have learned from their roster building mistakes last season, and are able to identify and land some premium targets. Do you have any players you're hoping UK goes after? Drop some names in the comments!
