Concerned or Confident for UK?

Sean Vinsel

— 5 min read
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I consume a lot of college basketball content online, but I have realized over the last couple of days that I really focus on a couple of outlets, and those outlets are overwhelmingly pessmistic about Kentucky's chances against Santa Clara. However, when I looked at some of the predictions from websites that are part of massive media conglomerates I noticed that there are actually a fair amount of writers who think Kentucky will beat Santa Clara.

The case against Kentucky advancing past the first round on Friday seems to consist of "Kentucky hasn't been very good this season". Now, that's a pretty compelling case and one that I can't completely ignore. Santa Clara is also a very good mid-major team, and those kinds of teams get a lot of benefit of the doubt from smarter college basketball writers. Santa Clara also has a veteran coach in Herb Sendek, although his record of 3 NCAA bids and 1 NCAA victory since 2006 (with 9 seasons, 2 bids, and the lone victory coming with high major Arizona State) makes me think he's more of A Coach We Recognize rather than A Coach Who Wins.

I don't have a great feel for how this game is going to go. I'm torn between some important factors that make me concerned about Kentucky's chances, and a few that make me feel confident. I'm going to go through them, and we'll see how it balances out.

What Makes Me Concerned

  1. Santa Clara has been better than Kentucky against Top-100 competition. Using Bart Torvik's website and its filters, I looked at the D-1 ratings when considering just games against top 100 competition. Shield your eyes....Santa Clara rates 24th in the country and Kentucky 43rd. Santa Clara lost by a combined 31 in 3 games against Gonzaga, while Kentucky lost by 35 in 1 game against the Zags.
  2. Santa Clara can force a LOT of turnovers. The Broncos are 22nd nationally, forcing turnovers on 20.1% of opponent possessions. Kentucky played 6 games against 5 teams who were top-100 teams nationally and posted a defensive turnover rate of 17% or higher (Gonzaga, St. John's, Texas A&M, Georgia, Vanderbilt). Kentucky went 2-4 and turned it over 19% of the time. Even low turnover teams like Florida, Auburn, and South Carolina nabbed steals against Kentucky.
  3. Santa Clara will spread the floor out. Every rotation player for Santa Clara took at least 1 3PA per game this year, even their 7'1" C Bukky Oboye. In fact, everyone besides Oboye took at least 2 3PA per game. Most three-happy teams in the SEC have a big man who doesn't step outside, but UK did face a few teams who play legitimate five-out: Bellarmine, North Carolina, and Vanderbilt. UK went 2-2 and got a massive scare from a bad Bellarmine. Malachi Moreno especially struggles when defending stretch fives.
  4. Kentucky may not win the rebounding battle. Santa Clara is 19th nationally in offensive rebound rate, and the teams UK played who were that good or better collected 41% of their own misses vs UK. Even just factoring in Santa Clara's offensive rebounding against top-100 teams, UK gave up 39% to opponents who rebounded similar to the Broncos.

What Makes Me Confident

  1. Santa Clara isn't as good against top 50 competition as Kentucky. Santa Clara's analytics against top-100 teams are bolstered by a 5-1 record against teams ranked 51-100. When filtering Torvik's data to games against top-50 teams, UK moves up to 36th vs Santa Clara's 43rd. If you filter further to only games since Jan 14th (since Lowe and Quaintance were lost), UK is 27th and Santa Clara 33rd.
  2. Kentucky improves as they shorten the rotation. This is code for "UK is good when Aberdeen and Oweh are in and bad when they are out". Per hoop-explorer.com, for the full season UK has been 13 points better per 100 possessions with both Oweh and Aberdeen in then when either or both is out. In SEC play that jumped up to a difference of +21 points per 100, with UK playing at the level of a top-20 team with those 2 in. In non-conference, those 2 teamed up for about 65% of the minutes in each game. Over the last month, that's risen to 85%. With extra TV timeouts in the NCAA tournament coaches can squeeze an extra minute or two out of their best players.
  3. Kentucky can score against Santa Clara without effective halfcourt shotmaking. Santa Clara will press full-court and either trap or aggressively hedge on pick-and-rolls, putting pressure on ballhandlers. However, this leaves the Broncos with some gaps in their defense. Santa Clara is worse than average in both frequency and points per possession against opponent shots in transition, shots by a big man out of pick and roll, attempts off of a cut to the basket, and from an offensive rebounder. Kentucky should be able to score in transition, off made baskets, and off of well-timed passes...even if outside shots aren't falling. Additionally, Santa Clara gives up a TON of free throws. In their 13 games against top-100 teams, Santa Clara took more free throws than their opponent 2 times...and once was against McNeese State, one of the foulingest teams in D-1. Kentucky should get to the foul line a lot.
  4. Santa Clara has been pretty bad in postseason play. Santa Clara has produced some NBA talent lately (Jalen Williams, Brandin Podziemski) and has been a strong mid-major (85th or better at KenPom in 4 of 5 years, with 109th being the worst year). Want to know what they haven't done much of in those 5 years? Beat anyone with a pulse in a postseason game. In WCC tourney play, the Broncos are 4-5 with 3 of their 4 wins against teams outside the top 100 (180th, 256th, 112th) and a single quality win over 25th rated Saint Mary's this season. While 3 of their 5 losses are Saint Mary's or Gonzaga, they also lost to 216th Pepperdine last year and 101st San Francisco in 2023. The Broncos haven't made an NCAA tournament, but have a 1-3 record in other tourneys with the lone win over #156 UC Riverside last season. That's a combined 5-8 in postseason play, with 4 of the 5 wins against teams outside the top 100. This is not a program that plays anywhere near its best at the end of the season.

What's going to happen?

If I knew that I would not be using that talent to write a free newsletter, but I do have some ideas on what might go well and what might not.

Kentucky is going to get to the free throw line a lot, probably at least 20 times.

Kentucky is probably going to get about 10 offensive rebounds, and should score about 14 second chance points.

Santa Clara's Allen Graves is probably going to do a Mark Mitchell impression around the middle of each half when he comes in and plays with bench units, and he'll make some wow plays.

Santa Clara will force at least 13 turnovers, including a couple that have UK players frustrated at each other.

Santa Clara will not let Aberdeen and Oweh have free driving lanes to the rim.

The game is going to turn on a few key factors:

  1. Can Santa Clara pull UK's bigs away from the rim on defense, leading to either made layups or offensive rebounds? Regardless of what the score looks like during the first half, UK will be in good shape if they are getting 75% or more of Santa Clara's misses and if Santa Clara takes more jumpers inside the arc than layups.
  2. Can UK move the ball well enough against Santa Clara's aggressive ballscreen coverage? Specifically, can UK's bigs make enough plays as passers or drivers? Moreno, Dioubate, and Garrison need to hit at least 50% of their shots and have fewer turnovers than assists in the first half for UK to be on track.
  3. Can UK avoid a complete collapse when either Aberdeen or Oweh sits? Florida recorded 8 points on 2 possessions as UK committed 2 turnovers, committed a flagrant foul on a made three, and generally looked befuddled at the idea that they had to handle a basketball. Every UK player needs to know that Santa Clara will bring pressure, but making simple quick reads will unlock transition baskets.

As I am about to hit publish, tip-off is in 12 hours. Let's do this.

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