What's working and what isn't for Kentucky

I'm not very handy around my house. I am willing to try smaller DIY projects, and I can do plenty of basic things, but whenever I try to find a "fix-it" solution for something I usually take longer than I should and the end result doesn't quite look like you'd expect.

I'll give you a real example. We have a refrigerator in our garage, and the door handle came loose a couple of weeks ago. My wife figured out that a small screw that was holding the door handle in place was missing, but that it should be an easy fix if we replaced it. This week I tried to replace it, couldn't find the right size screw after searching in a Home Depot aisle for 15 minutes, and ended up 1) buying a replacement bolt that didn't quite fit and 2) finding another bolt that did the job, but is about a half inch longer than it needs to be. This whole process took about an hour (including drive time) and ended with a door handle that WORKS, sure, but has about a half inch of bolt sticking out of it. I'm just lucky that my wife cared more about the door handle "not falling off" than the appearance, since it's in the garage.

I want to connect this to Kentucky men's basketball this season, if you'll bear with me for a few more sentences. Kentucky came into this season with a very different type of roster than last year's Wildcats. Through the first few weeks, it became clear that the coaching staff wasn't putting the roster in positions to succeed. After about 10 games, some changes were made and UK racked up a couple of quality wins. The way UK got those wins looks completely different than anyone probably expected this offseason. It took longer than it probably should have and it doesn't look like anyone expected, but UK has at least stabilized.

As I've watched and rewatched the past 3 games for Kentucky I feel much more confident than I did earlier this season that there is a real path for Kentucky to be an SEC title contender. There are some significant things that are really working for the Wildcats that can lead them to big wins. At the same time, there are some things that I don't think are going to work. Maybe the staff can make some further adjustments, but I firmly believe that most of UK's struggles this season will be driven by the things that won't work.

What is working

Through the first 10 games of this UK season, my assessment was that Brandon Garrison was completely unplayable. His defense was actively harmful, as he showed little activity or awareness when guarding away from the ball and unprepared to offer resistance when guarding the ball. His rebounding only occurred when he had easy opportunities, and he didn't show a willingness to box out or find position. His offense was most notable for frequent turnovers as a passer and a bizarre attempt to become an outside shooter. I was pretty certain that UK needed to reduce his minutes to functionally zero if they wanted any success.

A lot of stats backed this up. Per hoop-explorer.com, UK was about 7.5pts per 100 possessions worse with Garrison on the floor through 10 games. Opponents hit 61% at the rim with Garrison in and 53% with him out. UK rebounded their own misses 8% more often when Garrison was sitting out. Garrison was turning the ball over at the highest rate among UK's rotation.

Over the last 3 games, Brandon Garrison is a new player. Kentucky is winning by a larger margin now when he is in the game, and UK's rebounding and inside scoring are better when he's in the game. The most shocking change isn't a statistic, however...it's what you see when you watch him play. On virtually every single defensive possession, Brandon Garrison has his hands and feet active. He is constantly ready to be involved defensively. He is probably the best Wildcat at boxing out consistently on the defensive glass, and he has been very active in finding space to attack the offensive glass while trying not to impede the shooter of his rebounding teammates. It's energizing for me to watch, and Garrison deserves credit for doing so much of the unsung work.

I expected UK to emphasize an offensive scheme around spacing, shooting, and off-ball cutting. This has been a hallmark of Pope's teams, and worked last season. This usually requires at least 4 players who are outside shooting threats, which forces the defense to spread out and creates better scoring opportunities at the rim. I wasn't alone; I think everybody expected that kind of offense. Besides, everybody knows that good teams shoot threes a lot now.

It became SUPER clear SUPER quickly that UK did not have a team that could execute that kind of scheme. Kentucky does not have a single player at PF or C who defenses need to guard at the 3 point line and who could actually rebound or defend. Instead of using media time to vent and blame players, Pope and the staff decided to completely overhaul the approach on offense, beginning with the Indiana game.

Instead of focusing on shooters or defenders or versatile players, UK focused on dominating the glass. UK corralled a higher percentage of their own misses against St. John's and Indiana than in any of the 4 prior games against power conference opponents this season, and held both opponents below their offensive rebounding average. Conversely, UK took only about 25% of their shots from deep in these games compared to over 40% earlier in the season.

Spacing the floor with shooters is a great way to have a really effective offense, but you have to have shooters at 4 or 5 positions to do this effectively. If your PF or C is at the 3 point line and isn't a shooting threat, they are less likely to get offensive rebounds and you get no real spacing benefit (because there's no rule that a defender has to follow them to the perimeter). Credit to UK's staff for adjusting and finding something that works!

What's Kinda Working

Jaland Lowe's ability to drive and be a threat either shooting or passing is the most unique offensive skill on UK's roster. Per hoop-explorer, he is far and away the most efficient scorer UK has when driving to the basket. UK's shooters hit a higher percentage from deep off his passes, and UK gets more transition baskets with Lowe in the game.

Denzel Aberdeen is not the distributor Lowe is, but he is more willing and able than any other Wildcat to create offense off the dribble. Specifically, he has the creativity to use his dribble and slight changes of direction to throw off help defeners. Other Wildcats either do not really try to drive when help defenders are near (Johnson, Chandler) or use sheer power/athleticism to get through (Oweh). Against Bellarmine's zone defense, Aberdeen was the one Wildcat who was willing and able to get into the paint off the dribble. If other opponents play zone, UK needs Lowe and Aberdeen for the offense to function.

With Lowe sitting out and Aberdeen in foul trouble, UK's offense looked lost for long stretches against Bellarmine especially. UK was able to create some things against Indiana and St. John's man-to-man defense through post-ups or drives, but were flummoxed by the zone. Jasper Johnson and Collin Chandler are not creators as lead ballhandlers. UK relied on hot 3 point shooting and offensive rebounds, but won't be able to rely on both of those throughout conference play.

UK's bigs just aren't the playmaking hubs that Amari Williams was last year. In a pinch, Dioubate can drive the ball fairly well, but there's not enough juice on-ball to sustain an offense. UK can always try to get out in transition more often, but high-level opponents tend to do a strong job at taking away fast break layups.

The Wildcats need Lowe and Aberdeen to be available, and need one or both on the floor for every meaningful minute the rest of this season to keep the offense afloat.

What Isn't Working

This season, Kentucky has played a lot of switching defense. This type of defense has a lot of benefits. It limits passing openings by keeping every player guarded functionally all the time. It simplifies the communication and decision making by players. It also puts pressure on opponents to create one-on-one scoring chances, which the defense can counter will well-timed help.

This defense also has its issues. It tends to allow the opponent to dictate mismatches because they know the defense will switch. It can create rebounding issues due to these switches. It also puts players into a lot of positions where they are not comfortable. These issues tend to be magnified when playing against teams with very different styles of rosters from your own.

This was magnified against Bellarmine, which would have 4 or 5 players on the permieter all times and use on and off-ball screens to create switches. Malachi Moreno in particular looked very uncomfortable guarding players who moved to the perimeter. UK's bigs would routinely get pulled out to the perimeter because they ended up guarding a shooting threat, and the bigs then were out of position to help on drives. In earlier games this season, power conference teams knew they could create switches where UK's guards would defend post players. UK cannot be so willing to give the opponents favorable matchups without having a plan for the other defenders to rotate and help out.

Furthermore, UK can be hit-or-miss in offering effective help defense. Too often, a UK player who is guarding off-ball will have a lapse where they watch the ball and lose their man, who then is a threat to score. Against Bellarmine, the main culprit was Otega Oweh. He will create some steals when he time his help right, but more often he gives the opponent an advantage by leaving his man unguarded. UK is not sharp enough rotating behind Oweh for him to take these kind of chances.

UK needs to develop their team defensive connectivity and awareness so that they can be a bit more flexible in defensive strategy. UK's roster is not super flexible, but they need to find a few defensive wrinkles.

As I mentioned near the top of this article, Brandon Garrison completely flipped from being a massive defensive liability to a legitimate defensive asset within this season. There are some other Wildcats who have regularly struggled on the defensive end to the detriment of the team. Kentucky simply does not have enough margin for error on offense to punt meaningful minutes on defense.

The biggest issue is Andrija Jelavic. Far too often, his breakdowns on defense are at the heart of opponent scoring runs. He isn't effective at guarding in the post, he doesn't close out or move well enough to guard outside the paint, and his rebounding is more hopeful than planned. As long as UK has healthy alternatives at PF and C, Jelavic simply cannot play.

Jasper Johnson has also really struggled to make a positive impact. His best games this season have come when he hits threes off the dribble, but he does not create offense for others and is too skinny to offer resistance on defense. He does have very good passing vision and can make nice passes off the dribble with his left hand, but that skill is less effective when Johnson can't beat his man off the dribble and make the defense rotate. His minutes need to be managed, and ideally he'd be alongside Aberdeen or Lowe so they can be the primary ballhandler.

One last player who has had some defensive issues is Kam Williams. Williams does bring the ability to flash real three point shooting, and can hold up against less athletic wings, but he's a guy whose minutes should be very matchup dependent. When he's on-ball, Williams is frequently too upright to stay in front of quicker wings and he's too slender to guard true power conference PFs. Williams also has a lot of trouble boxing out, even against smaller players, and is too often the reason UK gives up a defensive board.

Conversely, I have been puzzled as to why Trent Noah is seeing such little time recently. Noah is tremendously active and aware in help defense, and had moments in the last 2 games where his active talking helped get Malachi Moreno into correct positions. Noah also is a reliable shooter and excellent off-ball cutter.

Malachi Moreno is a player who has been a pleasant surprise this season, and who can be very effective as a low-post banger, but who is much less active and aware than Jayden Quaintance or Brandon Garrison. In some matchups, Moreno's struggles guarding away from the basket may necessitate a smaller role for him.

The Wildcats need to minimize the damage done when they aren't at their best, and reducing the minutes given to players who hurt the defense or offense is the easiest way to do so.

Kentucky doesn't have everything figured out yet, and they may not be an elite team with any consistency this season. The SEC doesn't have as many elite teams as it did last year, but there aren't many easy spots. The Wildcats will likely get some impressive wins but may also be prone to a clunker or two.

The big wins will probably require 1) all of UK's top 8 or so players available, 2) opponents who are vulnerable on the boards, and 3) defensive matchups that make sense for Kentucky (bigs who stick to the interior especially). Auburn, Georgia, and Arkansas seem like candidates, assuming UK's roster is healthy.

Games where UK struggles will probably involve 1) UK needing to give minutes to deeper bench players, 2) opponents who play unconventional defenses, and 3) opponents punishing switches or pulling UK's bigs away from the hoop. Texas and Vanderbilt worry me the most here.