We've never known less about UK and UofL

It's November 11th and the best rivalry in college basketball has shown up at your front door like Cousin Eddie in "Christmas Vacation". You are caught extremely off guard that this is happening right here and now, you certainly aren't as prepared as you want to be, and you are silently and desperately hoping that nothing disastrous happens to ruin the vibes for the holidays. But family is family, great college hoops is a treasure, and we make the best of the new situations.

By Christmas each of these teams will have a handful of games against top level competition under their belt and we'll have clearer expectations about conference play for each. Right now, though? We've got 4 combined blowout wins over low-major foes to go with 2 wins and 2 losses in exhibition play. Whatever you thought of these teams before they took the court this season is probably what you still think. In an era where roster continuity means that at least 3 of the players remember how to get from their dorm to the dining hall on the first day of classes, fans have almost nothing to go on except vibes and hope.

That doesn't mean that we don't know anything about these teams, though. Prior to the season, I wrote about where to expect improvement from Kentucky and Louisville compared to last season. Through two games against wildly overmatched foes, a few trends have begin to emerge for each team:

1. Kentucky seems better in many of the ways I expected. The Wildcats have excelled so far in areas that I expected to be strengths: defensive rebounding, scoring at the rim, avoiding turnovers, and limiting opponent shots at the rim. Kentucky has not shot the ball very well from outside, and has just been OK at defending shots at the rim, which are in line with the changes in personnel. UK has had better defense on the perimeter this season, and should see further defensive improvement when Jayden Quaintance is healthy and in the rotation. The biggest question mark is how much of a hit Kentucky's offense takes when playing multiple non-shooters. None of the players in the PF or C rotation are going to get guarded from deep, so if Jaland Lowe or Denzel Aberdeen aren't capable and active shooters then smart teams may clog the lane on Kentucky.

2. Louisville has surprised on defense, and has thrived due to a smart offensive gameplan. Per hoop-explorer, Louisville's first two opponents have hit just 41% of shots at the rim compared to over 78% for the Cards. Opponents are taking a huge number of midrange shots and hitting under 25% of them. Louisville is forcing turnovers at a sky-high rate, but also avoiding sending opponents to the foul line much. I didn't expect Louisville to have a stout interior defense, and forcing turnovers without fouling much is a tricky needle to thread, so I doubt that these trends will persist at anywhere near these levels. But that's ok, because Louisville has probably suffered from some bad luck on offense with room to improve even more there. The Cards are again off to a cold start from deep, hitting just 31% of their threes, but have still thrived of offense by hitting 78% of shots at the rim and almost completely eliminating low-value midrange shots. A staggering 96% of UofL's shots come at the rim or from three. Given the number of players with established three-point marksmanship, this plan is likely to turn into elite offense.

What can fans watch for during tonight's game that might make the biggest difference for each team?

Kentucky doesn't force many turnovers, and last season the Wildcats really struggled when losing the offensive rebounding battle. A turnover and a defensive rebound are the two ways a possession ends without a score, so it's critically important for Kentucky to vaccuum up a massive share of Louisville's missed shots. In 2 games this season, Kentucky is allowing opponents to rebound less than 20% of their missed shots, per KenPom. In last season's matchup, Louisville got just 23% of their own misses and offensive rebounding struggles cost the Cards in early season games against Duke and Tennessee as well.

The other key factor in the possession battle for Kentucky is avoiding turnovers. Last season Louisville was 9-7 when they forced turnovers on less than 16% of possessions and 18-1 when they exceeded that mark. On the flipside, Kentucky was 17-3 when turning it over less than 16% of the time and 7-9 when they couldn't avoid turnovers. Louisville is forcing turnovers on 25% of opponent possessions so far, but Kentucky has been good at avoiding them in the Pope era.

Watch for Kentucky to allow UofL to collect less than 3o% of their own missed shots, and to turn the ball over less than 13 times.

One significant change in UK's offense so far this season compared to last year has been the increased emphasis on perimeter ballhandlers creating offense via drives or pick-and-roll. Last season, UK's offense revolved around bigs distributing from the high post, looking for cutters or open shooters. This season, Kentucky still has some of those elements but has added much more pick-and-roll with Jaland Lowe, Denzel Aberdeen and Jasper Johnson in particular.

Per hoop-explorer.com, UK has been much more effective on these plays with Lowe or Aberdeen running them as compared to Johnson. With Jasper Johnson on the court, UK is scoring about 0.90 points per possession when running a pick-and-roll. This jumps to 1.56 points per possession when Johnson is off the court. I rewatched the Valparaiso game to see if anything was noticeable. Johnson had issues getting by his man off the dribble, which meant the defense didn't have to rotate as much and advantages weren't created. Look at these images from the game to see the difference. First, a play where Jaland Lowe beats his man off the dribble and forces help from the corner.

Then, a similar play where Johnson doesn't beat his man and the defense is in better position.

Kentucky's offense bogged down during Johnson's first stretch of playing time against Valparaiso, and the Wildcats can't have a similar stretch against Louisville. UK's bigs are not the same level of passers this season as Amari Williams was last year, so it will be important for UK's guards to create off the bounce. Johnson has struggled in that spot this year, so it's worth watching to see how it works out tonight. If Johnson is generating assists or his own shots around the rim in halfcourt offense, things are humming.

Watch for Jasper Johnson's minutes to see how often he is the primary ballhandler, and if he can create at least 6 combined assists or his own shots at the rim in halfcourt offense.

Mikel Brown, Jr. is an outstanding point guard and will likely be a top-5 pick in the next NBA Draft. In his first two collegiate games he has already had a clear influence on how Louisville creates offense.

With Brown on the court: Louisville uses transition and drive-and-kick to move the ball for open threes. 54% of the Cards' shots come from deep and they hit 34%, and 72% of UofL's baskets are assisted.

With Brown off the court: Louisville attacks less in transition and uses more individual drives to the rim as well as pick-and-roll finishing to create offense. 37% of Louisville's shots are threes and they hit under 24%, with 60% of their baskets assisted.

Brown is a pure advantage creator who creates openings for his teammates to thrive. The question for tonight's game is, how will Louisville attack Kentucky when Brown is not on the court? Drives from Adrian Wooley, Ryan Conwell, and Kobe Rodgers have been really effective against low-major teams, but it's difficult to keep that up against high-major teams. The key may be in those players drawing free throws, as the Cards have been able to get to the line at a high rate off their drives so far. Wooley, Rodgers, and Conwell all take more free throws than field goal attempts when Brown sits. Free throws are a great source of offense because they get made at 70% to 75% rates, or more. Louisville needs its guards other than Brown to get to the line a combined 12 to 15 times tonight.

Watch for Conwell, Wooley, and Rodgers to combine for 12 or more free throw attempts, especially in minutes where Mikel Brown sits.

Louisville's defensive stats this season have been superb, but I am skeptical that the Cards can keep up anything close to elite interior defense all season. The roster just does not have that level of big men, with the possible exception of Sananda Fru. Yet, somehow UofL is allowing opponents to hit just 33% of shots at the rim when Fru is out and 47% when he's in. 47% itself is an amazing number, but 33% is just not sustainable. Against a Kentucky team with significant size, that could be a concern.

What I'm looking for is for Louisville to use their power forwards, preferably Khani Rooths, to clog the lane. Kentucky's power forwards (Mo Dioubate and Andrija Jelavic) are not effective shooters. Dioubate has a very strange wind-up and quasi-shot put, and Jelavic was a 30% 3 point shooter in the Adriatic League. Rooths, and possibly Kasean Pryor, could largely ignore Kentucky's power forwards and cheat towards the lane. That would allow Rooths and Pryor to help contest shots and secure defensive rebounds. If J'Vonne Hadley is available, he could play a slightly different role as more of a roamer to look for steals. Against South Carolina State, Hadley and Rooths combined for 14 defensive boards, 1 block and 2 steals. Against Jackson State, Rooths and Pryor tallied 11 defensive boards and 2 blocks.

Watch for Rooths, Pryor, and Hadley (if available) to combine for at least 11 defensive rebounds and 3 combined blocks/steals.

A Kentucky win tonight probably involves low turnovers by the Cats, effective scoring at the rim, and Kentucky taking more shots than Louisville.

A Louisville win tonight probably involves a heavy advantage in free throws for the Cards, along with a lot of shots (and misses) for Kentucky's power forwards.

Whatever happens, it's a shame it only hapens once a year, right?