The Dream Game is here to wash away the nightmares of the last 3-4 seasons

The 2024-25 men’s basketball seasons for Louisville and Kentucky are a sort of therapy for their respective fanbases. For Cardinal fans, this campaign is needed to repress the hopelessness of the past 3 seasons. For Wildcat fans, this season is a statement that the program doesn’t need to be boastful, defiant, yet disappointing.

After the two teams clash on Saturday it is likely that one fanbase will slump back a bit while the other rides high. That’s really not a fair outcome, to be honest. Both of these programs have already shown that the past several seasons were just a momentary blip among decades of tradition. Louisville isn’t all the way back yet, but the fan base is justified in having expectations again. Kentucky still has to show that the program can achieve postseason greatness, but the team is back to winning national showcase games more often than not.

Before I get into any analysis of either team, I just want to say that it feels good to have both programs on the upswing again. This is the best rivalry among the two best fanbases in college basketball. I’m hoping we get a classic game this time.

So, what’s the story with these teams?

Kentucky’s deep, veteran roster and creative coaching are not messing around

Kentucky men’s basketball was simple to preview this season: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Zero minutes were returning. The new coach had never won an NCAA Tournament game. For the first time in forever there was no star freshman. The last Kentucky team to not have a freshman average at least 20 minutes per game was 2005-06; it’s going to happen this year.

A new offense predicated on spacing and movement, plus a roster 9 deep in proven contributors, has unexpectedly forced their way into the top 10 in polls and analytic rankings. Only 10 games in, there are already some recognizable hallmarks:

• Plenty of spacing, with bigs serving as playmaking hubs as opposed to low post bruisers
• More of a willingess to shoot from deep, with Kentucky taking threes at the highest rate in program history
• Using that spacing to stretch the defense, leading to good looks at the rim and the top FG% at the rim in the country
• Incredibly low rate of committing turnovers
• Drop coverage tempting opponents into taking lots of midrange shots
• Strong defensive rebounding
• Handing out few free throws to opponents

There are some areas to be concerned with, as well:

• After scorching the nets from deep in their first 5 games, UK is hitting just 28% from deep over their last 5
• UK opponents have been incredibly cold from deep, hitting just 26%; that’s not likely to last through the season
• Kentucky almost never forces turnovers, meaning that opponents are going to get some shots up

Overall, there have been a lot of positives this season and the Cats have been largely consistent. Their lone loss at Clemson was nip and tuck down the stretch, and their only real disappointing game was this week against Colgate. The coaching staff has shown a willingness and ability to make quality halftime adjustments, and the roster has responded to overcome halftime deficits against Duke and Gonzaga.

The roster is deep with contributors who have notable strengths:

• F Andrew Carr can convert around the basket, and has more floor-stretching skill than he’s been asked to show
• G Jaxson Robinson hasn’t shot a great percentage from deep (29%) but can shoot over smaller guards and has filled in at PG admirably due to injuries
• G Koby Brea is a net scorcher at 55% from three
• C Amari Williams is a voracious defensive rebounder, capable shot blocker, and even an audacious passer (although prone to turnovers)
• G Otega Oweh is an explosive driver who benefits when opposing bigs are lured away from the basket
• G Lamont Butler is a defensive terror and the best driver on the team, hitting 65% on twos at just 6’2”; he injured an ankle last week and is uncertain for this game

Kentucky’s most notable weakness is their wing defenders, who can be vulnerable to straight line drivers to the basket. The bigs haven’t been great help defenders in these spots, although they do rebound well. Opponents can exploit Brea and Robinson and get to the basket for solid looks. If Butler doesn’t play, Kentucky will be without their two primary PGs (Kerr Kriisa is out for several weeks) and they can be vulnerable to ball pressure.

Overall, the Wildcats have been more successful at capitalizing on their strengths as opposed to being hamstrung by their weaknesses.

Louisville has been struck by bad luck, but has a lot of upside

Louisville also turned over functionally their entire roster, save a walk-on, and pieced together a number of well regarded transfers. Louisville pulled more from the midmajor ranks than Kentucky did, and some players haven’t quite lived up to expectations yet. However, it is almost impossible to have a good handle on what Louisville is quite yet.

First, the team has suffered injuries to 3 key contributors: F Aboubacar Traore, F Kasean Pryor, and G Koren Johnson. This is in addition to 2 scholarship players redshirting this year due to knee injuries already…so the team is down to 8 players (7 of whom play regularly).

Second, the three point shooting has been unreasonably bad. Louisville has hit just 27%, a bottom 25 rate, despite their collective roster carrying a 36% hit rate into this season. Every Cardinal except PG Chucky Hepburn is shooting worse than their career averages, in some cases much worse. It’s been ridiculous and illogical at times, but the shooting woes have persisted.

New coach Pat Kelsey has brought a refreshing ability to have an actual plan for the team, and it’s shown up so far:

• They take threes on over half of their shots, a top 10 rate
• They almost never take midrange shots, leading to a top 15 2pt FG%
• The Cardinals have forced turnovers on 22% of possessions, 33rd nationally
• They crash the offensive glass and draw free throws, helping to offset some of the 3 point woes
• They bait opponents into a lot of midrange shots
• Cardinal defenders will help aggressively when the ball gets near the paint

Louisville’s injuries were particularly ill-timed, as the Cards were shorthanded to face Ole Miss and Duke. The competition level may be making things look worse, but since the injury bug hit:

• The 3 point shooting is at 23%, even worse than before
• The Cards are forcing turnovers MUCH less often
• Opponents have been hitting at a high rate at the rim…although they don’t get their often
• Louisville is using offensive boards and free throws to stay afloat on offense

The injuries have cast some doubt around the most likely outcomes for this season. Wins over Indiana and West Virginia were statements of intent, but 3 successive losses to Power 5 foes have tempered expectations a bit. Louisville may have a useful weapon in coach Pat Kelsey, specifically his energy and ability to motivate. A rivalry game sounds like exactly the time to unleash those skills. While the roster is depleted a bit, there are still strong options:

• PG Chucky Hepburn has been the engine as an incredibly disruptive defender and the best driver on the team; if Lamont Butler isn’t available, he may give Kentucky a lot of problems
• G Terrence Edwards was highly touted, but has had issues with lack of explosivess on the wing. He’s shot well the past couple games, but he’s struggled to get by defenders.
• F J/Vonne Hadley is undersized at 6’6, 215lbs, but is a solid rebounder and a terrific finisher around the basket (63% FG% on 2ptrs)
• G Reyne Smith will get up threes (89 in 10 games) and can hit (37%)

At some point, Louisville is going to have to decide if taking 55% of shots from deep makes sense for a team struggling to hit 30% from there. The lack of dynamism other than Hepburn is an issue, as is the lack of interior defenders. However, it feels like there’s more that just needs to click for Louisville…and when it does, it might look really good.

What will decide the matchup?

There are some clear areas where strength will take on strength:

• Louisville’s ability to force turnovers vs Kentucky’s ability to avoid them
• Kentucky’s defensive rebounding vs Louisville’s offensive rebounding
• Louisville’s propensity for free throws vs Kentucky’s refusal to grant them

There’s also a key matchup of whose luck will continue:

• Kentucky’s good luck in opponent 3pt FG%, or Louisville’s bad luck in their own 3pt FG%

Then there’s the areas where each team has a distinct strength:

• Kentucky and Louisville’s ability to coerce opponents into midrange shots
• Kentucky’s ability to create high quality looks at the rim

There are 3 key questions I have, and the answers will play out during the game:

1. Who wins in the 3 strength vs strength battles? (UK turnovers, UofL off rebs, UofL FTs)
2. Will the 3 point voodoo continue for Louisville/UK opponents?
3. Does either team get baited/forced into settling for midrange shots?

My prediction

Kentucky has been a steadier team this season, winning without needing outlier performances in any area. The Wildcats have been able to win without shooting well from deep. They don’t allow big offensive rebounding numbers. Teams don’t usually shoot well against them. Kentucky has a plan and players who can execute it, and they do.

That being said, I have a nagging feeling that Pat Kelsey is exactly the right type of coach for an underdog in this rivalry. He had Louisville primed and ready against Indiana, and the Cardinals made a major statement. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Louisville led at halftime in this game.

However, two things have me leaning towards Kentucky pulling out a tough win. First, Mark Pope has shown tremendous ability to make adjustments and use the myriad strengths of his team. Second, Louisville has no margin for error with fouls or fatigue.

I’ll go Kentucky 86, Louisville 79, with the stars of the game being Andrew Carr and Otega Oweh for Kentucky and Chucky Hepburn and J’Vonne Hadley for Louisville.