Let's Learn About: the Kansas State Wildcats

Kentucky dispatched a tricky Providence Friars and their ultra-creepy mascot in the first round. That’s no small thing given UK’s struggles against top offenses, but they established a lead in the first half and never relinquished it. The game largely went as I expected from my preview:

Let's Learn About: the Providence Friars

I know, I already did a free preview of Kentucky vs Providence…but I wanted to spend a bit more time diving into some of the analytics and some of this season’s games that are most instructive to look at when analyzing this matchup. Besides, it’s March Madness…I can’t get enough basketball stuff.

Hoops Insight

Let’s quickly recap what I predicted:

• Kentucky should own the boards: This happened (80% def reb rate, 44% off reb rate)
• Providence will probably get to the line more than Kentucky: Late fouling by Providence pushed UK ahead 13-11 in FTA; the most surprising thing to me was that Providence didn’t get to the line more
• Providence can guard the rim: Kentucky shot 9-21 on layups and dunks

The game was decided by two things that I mentioned in my full preview (for paid subscribers, only $19.50/year now through June 1!) Kentucky scored 18 points on their 18 offensive rebounds, compared to 2 points on 8 offensive rebounds for the Friars. Second, UK established their lead in the first half when Providence went to some bench lineups. The Wildcats have been pulling away when playing 4 or more starters against opponent lineups with 3 or fewer starters, and that held up again. UK was +11 in 8 possessions when 4 or more UK starters took on 3 or fewer Providence starters.

Now Kentucky takes on a very different style of opponent in the quick turnaround of the NCAA Tournament. In this game, I think some keys will be:

• Kansas State’s ability to force turnovers: Kentucky has been turnover-prone against similar defenses, and can’t afford to give away possessions
• Kentucky getting to the FT line: Kansas State fouls a lot, and Kentucky has beaten tough defenses by converting at the line
• Who can win at the rim: K-State gets to the rim a lot, but Kentucky tends to finish better there. Neither team is great at defending the rim, although K-State has been very effective the last 10 games. Can they keep it up?

Subscribe now (Just $19.50/year until June 1!) and see if you can figure out which team I mean when I refer to “the Wildcats”….