How will Louisville basketball look different in 2025-26?

Can Louisville take another step forward in Year 2 under Pat Kelsey?

Last season was a much-needed return to normalcy for Louisville Cardinals fans. A return to the NCAA Tournament after 3 especially dreadful seasons helped to recalibrate the program and re-energize the fan base. Now the expectations seem to be (rightfully) heightened and the Cardinals look set to make noise on a national level.

There's nothing like the optimism of a college basketball offseason, especially for a team where improvement seems inevitable. Returning players remind you of their best moments. Transfers seem to be uncovered gems. Freshmen are ready to blossom. Anyone can talk them into the weaknesses improving and the strengths getting stronger. The truth is a bit more complicated, however. Schematic choices by a coaching staff can lead to a team having certain strengths and weaknesses. Roster changes inevitables lead to improvements and declines in certain skills.

In this edition of Hoops Insight, I'll look at some of Louisville's strengths and weaknesses from the 2024-25 season, and predict where the Cards will get better, get worse, or stay about the same in 2025-26.

Where the Cards excelled in 2024-25

Louisville ranked inside, or right outside, the top 50 nationally in some key areas in 2024-25, per KenPom.com and Hoops-explorer.com:

2point FG% (19th in D-1)

% of shots taken from 3 (20th)

Avoiding opponent free throws (41st)

Defensive rebounding % (54th, and 46th in ACC play)

Some of these have been hallmarks of Pat Kelsey teams and are likely the product of his schemes; for example, Kelsey's last 3 teams have all been in the top 20 in 3 point volume. Others were heavily influenced by the skills of last year's roster; for example, James Scott ranked 3rd nationally in 2point FG%.

What to expect in 2025-26

As a ground rule, I really am not going to include incoming freshmen in this analysis. I simply don't have enough evidence to really predict what skills will translate to D-1. Maybe Mikel Brown or Sananda Fru will be the key in some specific areas...but I'm not going to make similar claims. With that being said, I will reference a few areas where they may be needed.

Here's what I'm expecting:

Louisville is not quite as accurate on twos, but shot selection keeps them effective. Pat Kelsey's last 9 teams have finished in the top 100 nationally in 2point FG%, but last season was the most accurate team he's ever coached inside the arc. The secret is that PK teams very rarely take midrange jumpers, so the vast majority of their twos are taken around the paint. Having James Scott be near-automatic around the rim last season was a big weapon that probably won;t be replaced. However, all 3 of UofL's transfers had a positive impact on their previous team's 2 point accuracy. Wooley and Conwell in particular helped pushed tempo in transition, which should help create easy twos. Aly Khalifa is a sneaky positive force here as well, with his passing helping create layups for teammates. Still, the lack of a major interior finisher may hinder things a bit. Verdict: top 40-50.

The 3 point barrage will continue unabated. As mentioned above, Kelsey's teams fire away from deep. Now UofL is adding 2 guards in Conwell and McKneely who took more threes than twos last season. Kasean Pryor and Aly Khalifa also took more attempts from deep than inside the arc, despite being big men. Combine a coach who loves to scheme up a perimeter attack with players who can execute it, and you've got an offensive approach that might make some boomer sportswriters cringe...but is going to be dynamic to watch. Verdict: Louisville cracks the top 10 nationally and leads all P5 conference teams.

Louisville won't give to charity much. The last three teams Pat Kelsey has coached have been very good to excellent at keeping teams off the foul line, after several of hsi prior teams fouled at some of the highest rates in the country. This may be a conscious shift in his style of coaching defense, or may be due to more skilled defenders. Either way, next season should see Louisville largely refuse to let opponents take free throws. Last season the Cards ranked 41st in free throw parsimony, and the 3 most foul prone players all left (Scott, Waterman, Traore). All 3 incoming transfers had low rates of committing fouls. Unless some of the freshman bigs combine heavy playing time with hacking tendencies, Louisville should be as good or better at limiting the most effective type of shots: free throws. Verdict: Louisville rises to a top 25 free throw prevention team.

The Cards will again keep teams away from second shots. For the last 8 seasons in a row, a Kelsey team has finished in the top 100 in defensive rebounding. While the Cards are replacing their main two frontcourt starters, that shouldn't be a major cause for concern. Last season the Cards were actually better at cleaning the glass when both Scott and Waterman were on the bench, as Kasean Pryor and J'Vonne Hadley hit the boards hard. Louisville will need someone (Khani Rooths? Sananda Fru?) to help the rebound parade, but the number of options and Kelsey's track record gives me confidence. Verdict: top 40 to top 50.

Where the Cards struggled in 2024-25

There were some notable areas where Louisville was below average last season, and in some cases well below:

3 point FG% (223rd)

Opponent FG% at the rim (195th, but 256th vs Top 100 teams)

% of FGA taken at the rim (305th)

The 3 point shooting was horrendous early in the season (339th in Nov/Dec) before improving massively (64th January forward). The lack of proven interior scorers and defenders really showed up as the season went on, although Louisville's guards did more than their share.

Will UofL be able to improve in these areas next season?

What I expect in 2025-26

Massive improvement in accuracy beyond the arc. Last season was an odd one, as nearly every Cardinal regular who took more than a handful of threes saw their 3pt FG% drop from what they'd hit in prior seasons. Louisville's 3pt Fg% of 32.8% was the worst for a Kelsey-coached team since his first Winthrop team hit just 31.7% in 2013. While Kelsey's last 6 teams have all been outside the top 100 in 3pt FG% nationally, last season felt like a bit of an aberration. I probably would expect some small improvement, regardless of whether new players were good shooters. However, Louisville's new players are ABSOLUTELY good shooters, so I expect that Louisville will be a much better outside shooting team. Conwell, McKneely, and Wooley all have hit 40% or better from three on significant volume. Even Khalifa is a career 35% shooter on almost 3 3PA per game. Mikel Brown even comes in with a reputation as a terrific shooter from deep. The main thing that could temper the 3 point accuracy is the staggering volume of threes I expect this team to get up. I think something like 36% from deep with over half of the team's shot coming from there is in play. No P5 team has ever combined that accuracy and volume...but this might be the team to do it. Verdict: Top 60-75.

A lot of issues protecting the rim. When Louisville played against top 100 teams last season, opponents hit 56% of their shots at the rim when James Scott was in and 64% when he sat. That former figurewould have placed Louisville's rim defense 111th in the country, the latter 345th. This is the biggest area where the Cards are going to miss Scott. For all of the rebounding tenacity shown by other returnees, no Card who has played D-1 basketball has shown any ability to defend the basket. The major hope here is that Sananda Fru is ready to step in and at least be serviceable; he is 22 years old and has played against pros, so it's not inconceivable. If he has any struggles or isn't ready to play major minutes, then Louisville is going to have to figure out how to keep opponents from getting to the rim in the first place. For what it's worth, Kelsey's Charleston teams struggled to defend the rim as well...so maybe he can coach around that weakness. Verdict: Yikes, hopefully 225th to 250th

Better at getting to the rim, but not at the expense of threes. Louisville really did not take a lot of shots at the rim last season, although it wasn't so much an issue that they COUDLN'T get there. They just CHOSE to shoot a ton of threes. Even in transition, Louisville was much more likely to take threes than to get to the rim. That's been a Kelsey hallmark. The Cards still take almost twice as many shots at the rim as from midrange, but that still meant they were very perimeter-based. However, Louisville is replacing a player in Terrance Edwards (who took more twos away from the rim than at it) with Wooley and Conwell, who took about 3x as many twos at the rim as away from it. Louisville also is replacing Reyne Smith (who took 16 shots at the rim vs 282 threes) with Isaac McKneely (who took 44 at the rim vs 240 threes). Louisville isn't moving away from threes, but there should be a bit of an uptick in getting to the rim and a reduction in some of the midrange shots. Verdict: 250th to 270th

I expect Louisville to make some real improvements on offense as they field maybe the top 3 point attack in the country while maintaining some of the scheme-based advantages. Louisville should look similar on defense, and maybe a bit more extreme as some of their strengths are better and their main weakness is a bit worse. Bart Torvik's preseason algorithm projects Louisville 11th in the country, with the 4th best offense and 26th best defense; last season he had the Cards finishing 28th overall (28th offense, 21st defense). That feels directionally right to me, and should portend some serious highlights and thrilling games this season as the Cardinals look to make real postseason noise for the first time since 2015.